Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
